De Moraes column: Is there another housing crash coming?
January 14, 2019
Are we headed toward another housing crash?
I really can't say, because I really don't know. I'm not an economist crunching numbers every day, studying the trends across the country or a Tarot card reader that can tell you what the future holds. If I were, I would more likely be investing in the next Apple company than I would be writing this article.
The belief that your home is an investment will not go away anytime soon. Many believe that owning your own home makes financial sense, and in many ways it does when comparing to renting. Not nearly the only reason, but one large reason is the fact that real estate values typically go up over the course of time.
Why pay the same amount in rent while someone else kicks back and enjoys an increase in value in their investment over the next 10 years when you can watch your own investment increase? Of course, property is not liquid and should only be one part of a personal investment strategy. Much depends on if you're living in a home or house — big difference in my opinion.
Foreclosures are nowhere near the levels today that they were in 2009-2012. Between 2009 and 2012, there were 2,286 foreclosures filed and 1,134 deeded at a foreclosure sale. In the last four years, since 2015, there have only been 288 foreclosures filed and 167 deeded at a foreclosure sale, just 12 of those in 2018.
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The most common question I've been asked in the past 30 days is, "How is the market?" If you're curious, give me a call and we can discuss, because your specific market is different than someone else's.
So what you're still wondering is if we are on the brink of a housing crash, and if your home is your only investment strategy, I too would be a little nervous. However, there are signs that show we may not necessarily be headed for another bust in the near future.
First off, foreclosures are nowhere near the levels today that they were in 2009-2012. According to the County Public Trustee website, between 2009 and 2012, there were 2,286 foreclosures filed and 1,134 deeded at a foreclosure sale. In the last four years, since 2015, there have only been 288 foreclosures filed and 167 deeded at a foreclosure sale, just 12 of those in 2018.
Secondly, the amount of equity many home owners have in their homes is far great today then 10 years ago, and cash out refinances are only a fraction of where they were in 2006, according to Freddie Mac reports.
Lending standards are much tougher today than 12 years ago. The standards have loosened a little over the past few years but are also not nearly as loose as the almost nonexistent standards that helped create the housing crisis of 10 years ago.
Our area of course is not immune to what is happening in other areas, but many of the home buyers we as brokers have been working with are relocating here from other areas and see not only the value in homes based off of their areas but value in the lifestyle the valley offers.
All of this does not necessarily mean we are out of the woods of course, but it does point out some valid reasons our market may stay stable for the foreseeable future.
Sean de Moraes is an agent with Roaring Fork Sotheby's. He can be reached at email@example.com.
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