Republican Marc Catlin holds a lead of around 2,100 votes over Democrat Cole Buerger in the election to represent Senate District 5 after 10:30 p.m. on Tuesday.

There were around 70,000 votes counted, with all seven counties in the district reporting votes. AP News estimates that this accounts for 71% of the votes cast. Catlin is currently leading in Montrose, Hinsdale and Delta counties.

The race is between Buerger, a business owner from Glenwood Springs and Catlin, a state representative from Montrose. 

Senate District 5 stretches from the Interstate 70 corridor in Garfield County through the Roaring Fork Valley into Hinsdale County, near the southern border of the state. It includes the entirety of Pitkin, Gunnison and Hinsdale counties and portions of Delta, Montrose, Garfield and Eagle counties. 

The district is currently represented by Sen. Perry Will, a New Castle Republican who decided not to run for re-election.  

Depending on results in a handful of other elections, the Senate District 5 race could determine whether Democrats gain a supermajority in the General Assembly. With two-thirds majorities in the House and Senate, Democrats could make strides to fundamentally change the Colorado Constitution, including the state’s tax, elections and criminal justice systems.

They would also be able to override any vetoes from Gov. Jared Polis, diminishing one of his key negotiating chips. Polis is a Democrat but he has pushed back on some of state lawmakers’ most progressive policies.

Senate Democrats, with their 23-12 majority, are only one seat away from a supermajority. House Democrats are working to maintain the two-thirds majority they gained in 2022. 

Whether Democrats achieved this feat was yet to be determined as several of the key races were too close to call at 10:30 p.m. on Election Night.

This is the first election in the district since its boundaries were redrawn in the 2021 redistricting process. While it was initially graded as Republican leaning, some indicators have shown it tilting more toward Democrats recently. 

Catlin and Buerger have both opted for moderate stances in their campaigns to represent the district, which was predicted to be a coin-toss election. The results in Garfield County, which has become less predictable in recent elections, are likely to be some of the most important in determining the winner. 

Throughout the night, Buerger has maintained a slight lead over Catlin in Garfield County.

In the final days of the election, Catlin and outside Republican groups poured money into the race, supporting his campaign.

Catlin raised $140,000 and spent $123,000, according to the latest campaign finance records. Buerger raised $142,000 and spent $80,000.