New data shows Colorado’s allure for newcomers is weakening, with net migration down more than 50% since 2015. Some counties on the Western Slope are defying the trend, however, drawing more families and workers to its mountains.

Net migration to Colorado declined by 52% from 2015 to 2025, reflecting roughly 36,000 fewer individual arrivals this year, according to a July migration report by the Common Sense Institute, a conservative-backed nonprofit research organization.

The decline for the Denver Metro area is even higher — around 69.6% relative to 2015, which is a notable drop when compared to the net migration of other metro areas in states like Utah, Texas, Washington and Florida, which all saw a positive change in net migration.

Some parts of the Western Slope, however, show promising indicators or healthier growth, according to the August report.

“Colorado is a very expensive state to live in. We are aging very rapidly, and we’re having fewer birth rates. Our economy is showing signs of slumping in the future,” said report author and Director of Research Caitlin McKennie. “But while this is true, we are seeing areas such as the Western Slope that are really thriving in terms of attracting movers to these locations and having families.”

Garfield and Mesa counties are among the few regions expected to “buck the trend.” According to McKennie, factors like relative affordability, economic opportunity and quality of life in these counties appear to be driving higher-than-historic projections of net migration in the near future.

It’s important to note that “2025 was a very high year for net migration,” according to McKennie. The year 2015 was selected as a baseline for the research in order to track the change in migration within the 10 years, she said.

Additionally, the decrease in working-age adults to the state is not contrary to what other parts of the country have seen as states continue to recover from the pandemic and adapt to new economic policies.

The exception to Colorado’s declining migration

Garfield County

Net migration for Garfield County is projected to increase by 52% by 2027, a rebound of about 623 individuals arriving in the county compared to its pre-pandemic level of 409 new residents in 2019.

Garfield County didn’t always have a positive migration rate. In 2015, the county recorded a population decline with a negative net migration of roughly 65 residents. The shift within the last decade from population loss to being one of the regions still experiencing positive migration reflects broader changes in the region’s appeal and economic conditions, McKennie said.

This surge doesn’t show signs of slowing. Long-term projections suggest net migration in Garfield County will reach approximately 852 by 2035.

The cost of living in Garfield County is 21.9% higher than the U.S. national average, according to the Common Sense Institute. Although housing and cost of living in the county is still more expensive than in the Denver Metro Area and some rural districts, the overall cost of living is 1.2% lower than the Colorado state average.

In addition, Garfield County is projected to see a roughly 33% increase in births over the

next decade. The county is one of the few with a positive birth rate, while the rest of the state has recently seen a decline in birth rates compared to historic levels.

Eagle, Garfield and Moffat counties are among those on the Western Slope with the highest birth rates — around 15 births per 1,000 people, according to data from the Colorado State Demography office. Pitkin, Routt and Grand counties are on the lower end, with 10-12 births per 1,000 people.

Garfield County’s higher birth rate relative to the rest of the state means a more balanced age distribution, which leads to a more sustained workforce.

“This is also very different from other counties, especially Denver Metro and the Colorado Springs area,” McKennie said. “We know that our state’s population is aging rapidly. We are expecting 40,000 retirees from Colorado’s workforce per year by 2030, and without people to eventually replace them, our labor force and economy could really suffer in the long run. This is where Garfield and Mesa really stand out.”

Mesa County

“Mesa County’s net migration has not only recovered from its pre-pandemic level of

1,000 residents in 2019 – it has surged well past it,” the report states. Net migration had climbed to 1,806 by 2023, an 80.6% increase in four years. Like Garfield County, projections showing net migration will continue to grow in the next ten years, nearly doubling to approximately 3,037.

This sustained growth is testimony of Mesa County’s rising appeal as a destination for new residents, primarily due to its affordability and expanding economic opportunities.

“Mesa County is very affordable,” McKennie said. “Mesa County’s overall cost of living index is over 99%, so that means that it is 1% lower than the U.S. average and nearly 18% lower than the Colorado average. So housing costs, such as rent and home prices are notably more affordable compared to the state levels.”

Mesa County’s birth rates are expected to experience slight upticks throughout the next few years, with annual births exceeding 1,600 by 2025. 

McKennie said most other counties on the Western Slope are “likely following the state trend” in terms of lower net migration and an aging population, though specific Common Sense Institute reports on the migration situation in counties like Eagle, Summit and Pitkin are still in the works.

“We plan to do more place-based specific studies on those counties in the coming months,” she said.

What’s driving more people to the Western Slope?

As a whole, the state is experiencing downticks in migration trends. Deeper structural challenges, such as rising housing costs and reduced affordability, are easy to blame for drinking Colorado’s appeal as a destination for new residents.

Colorado ranks 14th in regional price parities relative to all other states, according to a study cited in the report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In addition, net migration has historically been a crucial driver of the state’s labor force growth and overall economic vitality. For some regions of the state, low net migration presents a growing challenge to Colorado’s economic stability and labor force sustainability, the report states.

A reduction in the inflow of skilled workers can make it challenging for businesses to recruit talent and expand operations. This dynamic “places upward pressure on wages, contributes to labor shortages, and constrains economic productivity across key sectors,” according to the report.

Job growth in Colorado is projected to increase by only 1.2% in 2025. During the first quarter of 2025, Colorado’s job growth ranked 26th in the nation. 

Garfield and Mesa counties, however, are being labelled as “economic anchors of the Western Slope” thanks to a strong recovery from the pandemic and expansion in their commercial real estate sectors.

Because these two counties don’t rely as heavily on the ski season for its local economy as other Western Slope districts do, they benefit from a more stable engine of growth, according to McKennie. 

Both counties are still powerhouses of outdoor recreation, however, which generated $17.8 billion in economic output and supported nearly 128,000 jobs in 2023 alone.

“People are coming to this area because this area is more affordable to live in relative to other counties in the state. It’s beautiful and its economy is starving,” McKennie said. “I would say, unlike other areas that are similar in beauty to these counties, this region is one of the mountainous regions that do not rely largely on ski-season-only economies, so it offers residents with a more stable year-round economy.”