After a hot and dry start to summer, northwest Colorado is not expected to get much of a reprieve from warmer temperatures in July.

The summer heat arrived early in June, according to the July 3 OpenSnow blog post from meteorologist Alan Smith. In June, temperatures in western Colorado were well above normal. While much of Colorado saw precipitation near or above normal, northwest Colorado was the exception. There, precipitation ranged from below to much-below normal. 

This start to summer also followed a dry spring for northwest Colorado, according to a June 17 climate report from Russ Schumacher, Colorado’s state climatologist, for the Colorado Water Conservation Board. 

“Spring is generally the wettest time of year in northwestern Colorado, especially at the lower elevations,” Schumacher said. “They didn’t have a real great spring up there. …They missed out on that storm early in June and haven’t had much since.” 

This combination of conditions has dried out vegetation fuels across the Western U.S., Smith reported in the post. 

The monthly outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that all of Colorado will see temperatures above normal in July, with the state’s northwest corner expected to see the highest chance for temperatures above normal. At the same time, it reports Colorado has an equal chance of being wetter or drier than normal. 

“Expected above-normal temperatures in July will lead to rising fire danger in many areas,” Smith said. 

The National Interagency Fire Center’s national fire potential outlook for July indicates that the majority of Colorado will have “normal” fire potential, with above-normal potential in the state’s utmost northwest corner. In these forecasts, “normal” is based on the trend for the past three years and still carries a high risk of wildfire.

Much of western Colorado has entered into some form of fire restrictions, including Stage 1 restrictions in Summit, Eagle, Routt, Pitkin and Garfield counties. Stage 1 restrictions ban or restrict certain activities, including building fires, smoking, using certain machinery and other activities. Check local fire restrictions for U.S. Forest Service lands and counties for specifics on regulations.

This fire potential is enhanced by intensifying drought conditions, according to the agency’s report. 

All of northwest Colorado is experiencing drought conditions, according to the July 3 Colorado drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center. Drought conditions are the weakest — yet still abnormally dry —  in Summit County and the eastern reaches of Grand and Eagle counties. Conditions intensify heading west, with extreme drought conditions in portions of Routt, Rio Blanco and Garfield counties in the northwest. 

There may be some short-term relief from the heat coming this week. 

In a July 7 OpenSnow blog post, Smith reported that for the Western United States, “the monsoon has weakened after last week’s surge,” with the Northern Rockies expected to see some rain showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday, July 9, to Friday, July 11. 

In Colorado, while the state could see a “rare thunderstorm-free day” on Wednesday, there could be an “overnight threat of showers and thunderstorms” in the northwest part of the state, Smith reported.

This could include “a chance of lightning during the early morning hours (on Thursday) across this region, extending as far south as the Elk and Sawatch Ranges in Colorado,” he said, adding that Colorado could experience additional storm development in the morning with light rainfall. 

Similarly, Colorado could see a cold front and some thunderstorms and spotty rainfall on Friday and Saturday, Smith reported.

However, hotter-than-normal temperatures are expected to return to the Western U.S. next week, including in Colorado, according to temperature outlooks from the National Weather Service. Precipitation will be near normal, or slightly drier than normal, on the state’s Western Slope. 

Looking further out at the service’s outlook through July 21 shows a “wetter signal as the monsoon is projected to strengthen and push northward a bit around mid-month,” Smith reported, adding that southern Colorado in particular could see above-normal rainfall and an uptick in thunderstorms.